BYD is offering a self-driving feature for all. That could be trouble for Tesla.
Below is what I got from googling when using “Tesla self driving timeline” as search keywords. I think we all know Tesla is the de facto leader of EV and autonomous driving: I believe they like to use the term Full Self Driving, or FSD. I don’t make predictions: but I think it will probably take 10 to 20 years before the FSD or “autonomous driving” becoming mainstream in the US or in China. China may have a leg up because the EV adoption rate is higher (faster) and also because BYD now is full force behind this. BYD and its founder Wang Chuan’fu seems to be an extra-ordinary engineer and manager. Note FSD is an incredibly hard problem both from technical and regulatory (insurance included) perspectives: China has some advantage on the technology development, as well as the governance and regulations (due to one party and central government rule). I believe both helped China’s economy growth, as well as helping China becoming world manufacturing plant. Also, all mighty Apple abandoned their car project last year, after spending about $10 billions and 11 years. The original goal is “autonomous electric vehicle”.
(unionrayo.com) Elon Musk admits he was wrong — after 9 years of saying the opposite, he fails to deliver on his promises about autonomous driving. Elon is not the only person does this kind of gimmick, I worked for 2 software companies between 2000 and 2010, and it’s a common tactic for software companies to promise something but deliver it a few years down the road. Or we can call them optimists.
YT A Charlie Rose Global Conversation: Tom Friedman
I happened to watch this. At 32 minutes mark, Frieman says “you cannot go to autonomous driving without EV. Internal combust engine cannot break fast enough”. This hit me somewhat like lightning hit. And I tend to agree. It seems this is the analogy: analog vs. digital => internal combustion engine vs. EV. In that sense we will go to EV eventually if we believe autonomous driving (full self-driving) eventually will be a reality and take over from human’s manual driving. I did a google search too: “does self driving only work on ev“. And you can look at the search results yourself including the Search Labs | AI Overview.
I know both Charlie Rose and Tom Friedman: I mean watch Rose’s show and listen/read what Frieman has to say. I am aware of Frieman’s The World Is Flat book and I think he captured the globalization trend well. I am also aware of Charlie Rose’s scandal.
With Trump’s re-election and the sharp right turn of the USA, with his tariffs and everything, globalization and free trade are having a huge setback, to say the least.
A digital world, or two
When I was boarding the Delta airplane from Detroit to Shanghai, for my first post Covid visit to China, I was slightly surprised by the “face scanning” technology instead of the flight attendant manually checking the travel docs plus looking at the face old fashion way. An older ethic Chinese gentleman (who is likely PRC citizen, but hadn’t visited mainland for a long time, many years) was a bit shocked, from what I saw. But this is basically we people used to back in China, I mean the facial scanning technology is widely used for checking into the bullet (high speed) train station and so on. Chinese society is increasingly digitized. Just look at any KFC, everything is digitized, you order from the phone, and order will be ready for you shortly after. You don’t interact with the cashier or any real person. Similar for Luckin Coffee. Although I had to admit once I had to ask the barista how to order on my phone 🙂
(Mandarin, YT) China’s EVs are crushing global giants!
Personally, I just realized the war on EV (or competitions on EV to be precise) is looking more and more like the TikTok ban.
Last but not least, self-driving or autonomous driving could have big consequences for Uber (refer to my blog post on Uber driving tips). And Uber driving is meaningful or manageable job for quite a few people. How Many Uber Drivers In USA (2025 Statistics & Data). It seems capital is increasingly replacing human beings, in this case via the AI or computer and data.