Business, Market and Economy
Polaris Inc stock ($PII) closed under $60 the 1st time in last few years. I listened to their most recent investor conference: Polaris Speaks at Morgan Stanley Global Conference. You may listen to it via the link (need to register) or let me summarize it for you: things are not looking good for the company, as the US consumers are increasingly in a tough spot: including their core consumers in the rural America.
On the contrary, it seems to me Coca-Cola stock is still in a fairly reasonable price. Refer to this $KO dividend chart.
I don’t know about you. Personally I don’t like the market over reacted to the Federal Reserve’s decision, or the other way around – Fed tries to influence the market. But this seems to be the world we live in: since year 2008 financial crisis, the US government seems determined to not let similar things (crash) happen to the market. In a way they artificially pops up the market (which is obviously not healthy).
From the history of S&P 500 dividend yield, A History of the S&P 500 Dividend Yield; S&P 500 Dividend Yield, it seems we are at a bubble stage.
Warren Buffett stock market indicator (currentmarketvaluation.com; Wikipedia; Yahoo Finance)
The mother of all bubbles and How ‘the mother of all bubbles’ will pop by Ruchir Sharma
My Stock Trades
Some of my trades:
Friday 12/20/2024: NKE, NVO (day trading); I also swapped some $AMD (was under water) with $GOOGL. I just realized I have no edge on $AMD: my specialty is still around vertical software and some consumer brands. I may sell all my $AMD shares and buy $GOOGL instead.
Thursday 12/19/2024: day traded $PII.
I traded VFC either last year or this year, traded Levi this year. Neither did better compared to Gildan: the generic t-shirt maker.
The stocks I am under water (in any meaningful way): $AMD, $NVO, $OXY and $UBER.
It’s hard to predict the future, and don’t believe in the projections made by other people (YT video, Warren Buffett, at 5 minutes mark). This made me to wonder the validity of many predictions on stocks or earnings on YT, and also many years ago I visited a startup company in Shanghai, and the founder gave us some excel spreadsheet which is way too optimistic. I visited with a friend who is a VC (venture capitalist).
Warren Buffett: I Understand Consumer Behavior | CNBC (at 13 minutes mark, Warren talked about why he bought the $AAPL stock in year 2016)
It’s very hard to predict the market
If it’s ever possible. I have a friend who swears the Tom Lee on CNBC can predict the market. Sometimes I would joke with him. And I recall many years ago I would believe those kind of pundits, newspaper and so on. Such as this one: (note this is 404 not found). And I just googled him, and found out this gentleman was caught on securities fraud. So there is that. I am not suggesting Tom Lee is the same but I don’t think he is the God either. Btw, the Nightly Business Report (which I used to watch) was shutdown in year 2019. I realized it because I noticed CNBC’s Tyler Mathisen just retired. He used to help out NBR in the last few years of NBR. I listened to Wealth Track too, and I am aware the creator of WT Consuelo Mack used to be an anchor at NBR.
More on Hans Black: YT Video, Quebec money manager probed in Bermuda
US Politics and Coping Strategy
We already witnessed 1st hand the next 4 years will look like – with drama around shutdown talks (NYTimes). I expect we will see something similar to the 4 years between 2017 and 2021. This basically reaffirmed my “dumb and dumber” assessment of the US presidents. Now it seems to be the W won’t be the worst president any more? I’d tight the seat belt and sip my tea (coffee).