Avoid apparel and shoe brands and stocks, some thoughts on Apple stock
Posted in :
Some random thoughts I had on consumer products companies stocks: I think it’s probably better to bet on $V and $MA instead of $LULU, $NKE, $DECK, $CROX, $SBUX and last but not least: $ONON which I have a small long position, thinking selling it around summer Olympics. I just sold few $LULU shares and I did a little comparison between Lulu and Alo/Vuori.
I recall in year 2006 when both CROX and MA were new IPO stocks, both were at between $20 and $40. Both did well in last 18 years. Also note CROX is probably the best performing shoes stock from year 2006.
Apparel and Shoes business are very hard
Many apparel and footwear companies stocks came and gone: and yours truly happened to traded this one called Heelys. Fun facts: Heelys IPO’ed the same day as $ALGT All Giant Travel the discount airline (quite unique business model). I actually bought ALGT that day, and I quickly sold it unfortunately. ALGT did much better than HLYS (which is the Heelys ticker symbol, it was a fad and I saw the Jurney’s footwear stores still sell them?). Other apparel makers that are in decline in recent years and yours truly managed to trade it for a loss: VF Corp $VFC.
That also on the other hand, shows Nike did a tremendous job to stay relevant. It got fierce competition in the running shoes and sneaker side from upstart such as HOKA (Deckers Outdoor $DECK), and ON Clouds ($ONON). We all saw Under Armour came and gone in terms of its threat to Nike. I already touched slightly on the potential threat from Alo and Vuori to Lululemon.
Apple Stock $AAPL
I rung the register on $AAPL today: one share at a time. I hope it can test $200 on Monday w/ WWDC, but hope is not a strategy. || I fully understand the “one more dance or one more drink” mentality because I have been there many times – and got caught without chair 🪑 when the music suddenly stops.
Q: Why Apple stock went up and down in the last 12 months?
A: You ask me, I ask who.
Seriously good question.
I guess things $AAPL bears 🐻 don’t like: its near zero revenue (sales) growth in last few years, people holding on their iPhones longer, increasing competition in the CHN market, mostly using financial engineering (stock buy back) to boost its stock price, failed car project and lagging behind in Gen AI…
PS, 06-07-2024, I just saw Mark Gurman of Bloomberg published some scoop on the upcoming WWDC
– Apple Intelligence
– Emoji Tapbacks and scheduled iMessages
– Multipage, customizable Control Center
– Old school wallpaper packs on iOS 18 and macOS 15
– New Health app + AirPods hearing aid details
– Reminders in Calendar
On AI
My take on Apple intelligence- Apple AI
Recall probably in year 2015, at about 2 pm on Saturday afternoons, as I hop into the car, my iPhone would usually pop up and show the time it takes from the our condo to the Creve Coeur ice rink (under 10 minutes). At that time S was taking a private skating lesson. Apple probably got this Saturday afternoon routine of mine (or my daughter’s skating lesson) either from calendar, or past Apple map navigations. Then it just serves as a friendly reminder just like an assistant tells the boss. Again this is “non invasive, I am happy with it”.
I expect on Monday Apple will build on what they have now, and adding some Gen AI capability from a partner (Google or Open AI?).