The rumor is HP need to acquire software companies like Symantec to make its solutions more complete, after IBM made 2 or 3 deals lately. But I think the real reason is its own earning and growth prospect. While I am not very confident of the consumer market (Norton antivirus, internet security; under the pressure from Microsoft OneCare); I am guessing the enterprise market is healthy. It’s interesting to see its main competitor EMC is also out of 52 week lows. Let’s see.
I sold some today — early in the morning, and I did not got today’s high 18.37. I sold it because I need some cash. I am still bullish on the stock itself. From bussiness perspective, the consumer side (Norton series) will still be very challenging considering the number of players and MSFT coming to the party; but they are doing something with enterprise side of the things (compliance software, is it Sabane-Oxley related?). I am not expert on this.
Bought a little Housevalues (SOLD) early this week. The stock has been in the down turn trend this year because of the slow down of the US housing market. In last 2 quarters the revenue was OK compared with same time last year, but the expense has been up: the sales and marketing cost is up dramatically; more stock option is awarded this year across sales&marketing, product and general&administrative.
On competitive front, there are new players such as zillow, trulia and propsmart. All of them used some web 2.0 technologies and are appealing to the consumers.
On the plus side, the company still has positive income, generate operating cash flow and has about $3.5 cash per share. The stock could be volatile in the near term. But long term (1 year or so) I believe the US housing market should stablize and it should show some value.
Symantec (SYMC) had a rare good quarter in this past Wed. Not surprisingly upgrades came and stock went up more than 10% in the following trading days (Thursday and Friday). I did not looked into the detail yet, but the sentiment seems encouraging. This time I will let it run for a while, unlike what I did after Yahoo’s good earning last year - I sold it the second day for 34.88 (sth like that) and the stock went up all the way to 40 in a month.
Panera Bread (PNRA) had a bad day today. Its stock lost 12% of its value from yesterday’s close. The reason is it offered not-as-good-as-expected outlook for the next quarter and the year. Its new product Crispani(R) pizza is not taking off as good as expected. Interestingly, I saw it raised the price of coffee by 5 cents and I think there is some pricing power here. Personally I like Panera Bread not only because it’s St. Louis based, but I also get morning bagel from them almost every day. Last Thursday when the storm knocked out the power I went to 2 Panera stores and they are both closed. Shortly after power restored I saw the store near my home is packed: people bring laptop and cell phone, get charged and doing work. They got wireless Internet which also help people doing their work.
Back to stocks, I will read more on its 10-Q and see if there is anything interesting.
Google had a great quarter. But its stock did not move too much, although there are some upgrades from some brokage firms. The only thing I can say is Wall Street expected that to happen. On the other hand, its rival Yahoo missed the estimates, and its stock tanked by 20%. Certainly it’s not a good time for the stocks.
Back to Google, recently I read more about Google Search and its AdSense/AdWord program. I was amazed at its dorminance on the Search and online Ad. market. And the continuing growth (note Google beat the Wall Street estimate in last 7 of 8 quarters). Google did IPO in August 2004, with a initial opening price of $100.00. Many people (include me) did not understand its competitive edge in search and ad technology and thought it’s full valued. After two years, we all know the story. But the question is: can Google continue to grow like this? Will it slow down its growth sometime in the near future? The answer to the first question is easy, not so for the second.
For the first question, we just need to look at eBay. EBay had a great run in past few years. But now it’s slowing down. Note Google’s business model is very similar to eBay’s: connect buyers and sellers of the advertisement. Advertising and maketing is a big piece of the pie in the business world, but its’ share is not unlimited.
Just as I thought another big down day, and felt bad about my Symantec stocks (lost about 4%), the market rebounded before closing. Three major indexes closed almost flat. It’s hard to predict the market trend in short term. Although a lot experts including Cramer are very cautious and are recommending some ”dividend” stocks, which by the way I always like (I had small amount of JNJ and PFE).
On a separate note, I found Panera (PNRA) raised their coffee price (by 5 or 10 cents). In the market, I like a company has the pricing power. I would buy some PNRA when the price is right. I am a loyal Panera customer and just want to put the money where the mouth is 
I talked to an old friend in China, who has good knowledge of Chinese technology companies. He is very upbeat on Netease (NTES). Too bad I sold it last Nov. after its earning report. Unlike the US web giants, most Chinese Internet stocks are doing well recently.
There is a broad sell off in the stock market today. Or more precisely, there was a big sell off in this month. I am not an economist or market maker; and I don’t know how the market will go in the near term. Recently I looked some of the stocks I traded last year, I found if I hold them now most likely I will make money, e.g., BBY, NTES, NCTY, PETM, SOHU. The only loser is COGN, NINE and SNDA.
I am still holding SYMC, which I bought last Dec. at around $17. Software company stocks are not doing well recently, I think the weakness of MSFT is one indicator. Symantec (SYMC) has its own problems: the tax problem inherited from Veritas, the increasing competitiveness of consumer market, etc. This time I think I will hold it a little longer. I remember two years I got shaked out from the Nokia (NOK, bought at 17 and 14, sold at 14 and 12). One lesson I learned from past 2 years is patience. If the company foundamental is not changed, I can hold it. Nokia is about 21 nowadays. What I did in the past two years is I got shaked out easily (from earning miss), and jump into another stock too quickly.
I owned some Symantec (SYMC) since last December after it missed the earning estimate couple times. I thought it may be a bargain because the bad news seemed is behind. The stock did rebounded in Jan and stayed above $17 for a while. But it started going south recently because of the continuing earning disappointment, and today another bad news came in. Veritas, the company it acquired last year, was told by IRS to pay back tax of $ 1 billion.
I don’t know how it will play out eventually. The stock will definitely take a hit tomorrow on this news. It seems to me the accountants of Veritas (or Symantec) were not doing their jobs. One billion is not a small number, how could they make those kind of mistakes? Don’t know the recent resign of its CFO is related to this. By any means it’s not good news for Symantec. The thing they should do now is cleaning up things quickly and deliver some good results down the road.
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